Texas will add fewer jobs this year than economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expected a month ago, according to the bank's latest Texas Employment Forecast.
The forecast, released Monday after a delay from its Oct. 16 date because of data processing problems, projects job growth of 0.9% in 2026. That works out to about 134,000 new jobs and total employment of 14.5 million in December. The bank puts an 80% confidence band of 0.6% to 1.2% around the estimate.
In September the bank had projected 1.2% growth, or about 173,600 jobs.
A down month
The new figure follows a weak September. Texas employment fell at an annualized rate of 1.6% for the month, a loss of 18,900 jobs, the bank said. August's growth was revised up to 2.3%.
Government and construction led the September losses, followed by education and health services, trade and transportation, financial services, leisure and hospitality, and oil and gas. Manufacturing posted the strongest gains of the two sectors that added jobs, followed by information services. Employment in other services did not change.
"Texas employment declined in September, slowing year-to-date job growth to 0.8 percent, well below the state's long-running average of 2 percent," said Luis Torres, a senior business economist at the Dallas Fed.
He tied the slowdown to limits on the supply of workers that partly stem from sharply lower immigration, and said manufacturing has been supported by oil and gas activity, export growth and construction related to artificial intelligence expansion.
