Frisco Was Just Named the Country's Best Midsize Market. Prices Here Are Falling.

Two things about the Frisco housing market are true at the same time, and they are worth holding together.

Frisco was ranked the best midsize real estate market in the United States this month. Frisco's home prices are also falling.

The Lance Lambert House Price Tracker puts Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 9.2 percent below its 2022 peak and 2.2 percent lower than a year ago. Frisco's own median sale price has run at roughly $675,000, down about 2.1 percent year over year, almost exactly in line with the metro.

The four Texas metros

• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Down 9.2 percent from its 2022 peak, down 2.2 percent over the year, up 36.9 percent since March 2020.
• Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land. Down 4.9 percent from peak, down 1.9 percent over the year, up 33.0 percent since March 2020.
• San Antonio-New Braunfels. Down 10.5 percent from peak, down 1.9 percent over the year, up 27.1 percent since March 2020.
• Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown. Down 27.2 percent from peak, down 4.5 percent over the year, up 25.5 percent since March 2020.

Month-to-month, all four were within a tenth of a percentage point of flat. Those readings cover June to July, which the tracker notes falls inside the seasonally stronger part of the housing year. Flat in the strong season is a softer signal than flat sounds.

Why both can be true

The national ranking that put Frisco first was not measuring whether prices are rising. It weighted market health and forecast conditions at 80 points out of 100 and affordability at 20, which means it describes a market expected to hold its value rather than one climbing.

A market can be stable, liquid and well regarded while prices ease. That is roughly what the figures describe.

The wider context

Frisco sits inside a metro that rose 36.9 percent from March 2020 and has since given back about nine points of that. Austin, by comparison, is down 27.2 percent from its own peak.

For a seller, that means pricing against last year rather than against 2022. For a buyer, it means the market has stopped moving away from you at the speed it once did, which is a different thing from becoming cheap.

Sources

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/