UT Poll: Paxton Leads Talarico 43–42% in Texas Senate Race as Data Center Opposition Hits 56%

AUSTIN, Texas — The 2026 race for U.S. Senate in Texas is shaping up to be one of the closest statewide contests in recent memory, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll released this month.

Frisco, located approximately 30 miles north of downtown Dallas in Collin County, is home to an estimated 228,000 residents and has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States. The city is a regional employment hub, hosting the PGA of America headquarters, T-Mobile’s Southwest operations center, and Toyota Stadium.

The poll, conducted June 5–12 among 1,200 registered voters, found Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Democratic State Representative James Talarico by a single percentage point, 43% to 42%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown drawing 3%. The gap falls well within the poll’s ±2.83% margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

"The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds a neck and neck contest in the U.S. Senate race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Representative James Talarico, with Paxton the choice of 43% of Texas voters and Talarico preferred by a statistically indistinguishable 42%," the Texas Politics Project wrote in its analysis.

Paxton has consolidated Republican support since the April poll, when only 63% of GOP voters said they would back him in a head-to-head matchup with Talarico. The June survey shows 84% of Republicans now support Paxton. Talarico holds a similar 88% share among Democrats, while independents break for Talarico 40% to 12% — a gap that underscores the race’s potential pivot on unaffiliated voters.

In the governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 47% to 40%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 1%. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick holds a 43% to 36% advantage over Democrat Vikki Goodwin, though 16% of voters remain undecided in that contest.

The poll also measured strong public sentiment against data center construction. Fifty-six percent of Texas voters said they opposed building a data center in their community, including 42% who were “strongly opposed.” Only 29% supported such development. The finding reflects growing pushback across Texas as hyperscale data centers consume large amounts of electricity and water in communities from Sherman to Richardson.

Economic concerns remain the dominant issue for Texas voters. Fifty-four percent said the national economy is worse off than a year ago, compared with 26% who said it was better. Inflation and higher prices topped the list of the most important problems facing the state at 17%, followed by the economy broadly at 10%. Looking ahead, 36% expect improvement over the next year, while 35% expect conditions to worsen — a narrowing of optimism since February.

President Donald Trump’s job approval among Texas voters stands at 43% approve to 51% disapprove, figures that have remained largely stable since June 2025. His strongest marks come on border security, where 47% approve, while only 34% approve of his handling of the economy.

Source: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/june-poll-finds-a-competitive-u-s-senate-race-in-texas-amid-continuing-economic-concerns-data-center-backlash